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startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

**市场机会分析报告：TAM / SAM / SOM 计算** --- ### **1. 市场定义与范围** **目标市场**：明确分析的具体行业、产品或服务领域（例如：全球智能家居设备市场、中国在线教育平台、北美电动汽车充电解决方案等）。 **核心价值主张**：解决的用户痛点、提供的差异化优势。 --- ### **2. 市场规模计算（三层分析法）** #### **2.1 总潜在市场（TAM）** **定义**：在理想条件下，产品或服务可覆盖的全球或全行业最大市场需求。 **计算方法**： - **自上而下法**：引用行业报告、权威机构（如Gartner、IDC、Statista）的宏观数据。 *公式*：TAM = 目标区域总人口或企业数 × 年均潜在消费金额 - **自下而上法**：基于单位经济模型推导。 *公式*：TAM = 单客户终身价值（LTV） × 全球潜在客户总数 **示例**： > 假设分析「亚太区SaaS客服软件市场」： > - 亚太企业总数：2000万家 > - 需客服软件的企业比例：10% > - 年均软件支出：5000美元 > TAM = 2000万 × 10% × 5000美元 = **1000亿美元/年** #### **2.2 可服务市场（SAM）** **定义**：在现有技术、资源、法规限制下，企业实际可触达的市场范围。 **考量因素**： - 地理聚焦（如：仅进入中国一线城市） - 产品适配性（如：仅服务中型企业客户） - 渠道能力（如：仅通过线上直销） **计算方法**： *公式*：SAM = TAM × 可触达市场百分比 **示例**： > 若企业初期仅聚焦「中国中型企业市场」： > - 中国中型企业数量：100万家 > - 目标客户占比：20% > - 年均支出：3000美元 > SAM = 100万 × 20% × 3000美元 = **6亿美元/年** #### **2.3 可获得市场（SOM）** **定义**：短期（通常1-3年）内可实际获取的市场份额，考虑竞争与执行能力。 **考量因素**： - 竞争格局（市场份额、品牌壁垒） - 团队执行能力（销售、运营资源） - 市场进入策略（定价、合作伙伴） **计算方法**： *公式*：SOM = SAM × 预期市场份额 **示例**： > 若首年目标为占据SAM的1.5%： > SOM = 6亿美元 × 1.5% = **900万美元/年** --- ### **3. 市场增长动力与趋势** - **技术驱动**：AI、物联网、云技术等降低服务成本。 - **政策利好**：政府补贴、行业标准出台（如碳中和目标推动新能源市场）。 - **消费行为变化**：后疫情时代数字化加速、健康意识提升。 - **供应链演进**：本地化生产趋势、关键原材料成本波动。 --- ### **4. 竞争格局分析** - **主要玩家**：列出头部竞争者市场份额、优势劣势。 - **市场集中度**：CR3/CR5指数判断垄断性或分散性。 - **进入壁垒**：技术专利、牌照、资本需求、用户转换成本。 --- ### **5. 风险与挑战** - **宏观风险**：经济周期、汇率波动、贸易政策。 - **执行风险**：团队能力不足、供应链中断。 - **竞争风险**：巨头跨界打压、价格战。 --- ### **6. 机会评估结论** - **市场吸引力评分**（1-5分）：基于规模、增长率、利润率、壁垒等维度。 - **建议战略重点**： - 短期聚焦SOM验证商业模式（如：垂直行业试点）。 - 中期扩展SAM（如：拓展相邻区域/客户群）。 - 长期探索TAM增量（如：技术升级或生态整合）。 --- **附：TAM/SAM/SOM可视化图表** （建议以三层同心圆或柱状图展示，突出层级关系与具体数值） --- **关键数据来源示例**： - 行业报告：麦肯锡、贝恩、德勤、艾瑞咨询 - 公开数据：世界银行、国家统计局、行业协会 - 竞品分析：公司财报、SimilarWeb、Sensor Tower **注**：实际分析需结合具体行业数据，以上框架可根据业务场景调整细化。

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name:startup-business-analyst-market-opportunitydescription:Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOMallowed-tools:Read Write Edit Glob Grep Bash WebSearch WebFetch

Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

  • Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows

  • Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

    • Do not use this skill when

  • The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis

  • You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

    • Instructions

  • Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

  • Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

  • Provide actionable steps and verification.

  • If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

    • What This Command Does

    This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

  • Define the target market and customer segments

  • Gather relevant market data

  • Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology

  • Validate with top-down analysis

  • Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters

  • Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)

  • Present findings in a formatted report

    • Instructions for Claude

    When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

    Step 1: Gather Context

    Ask the user for essential information:

  • Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?

  • Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)

  • Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)

  • Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)

  • Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

    • Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

    The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

  • Bottom-up calculation frameworks

  • Top-down validation approaches

  • Industry-specific templates

  • Data source recommendations

    • Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

    For B2B/SaaS:

  • Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)

  • Estimate number of companies in each segment

  • Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment

  • Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

    • For Consumer/Marketplace:

  • Define target user demographics

  • Estimate total addressable users

  • Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)

  • Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

    • For Transactions/E-commerce:

  • Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)

  • Determine take rate or margin

  • Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

    • Step 4: Gather Market Data

    Use available tools to research:

  • WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data

  • Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates

  • Document assumptions clearly

    • Recommended data sources (from skill):

  • Government data (Census, BLS)

  • Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)

  • Public company filings (10-K reports)

  • Trade associations

  • Academic research

    • Step 5: Top-Down Validation

    Validate bottom-up calculation:

  • Find total market category size from research

  • Apply geographic filters

  • Apply segment/product filters

  • Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

    • If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

    Step 6: Calculate SAM

    Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

  • Geographic: Regions actually serviceable

  • Product Capability: Features needed to serve

  • Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt

  • Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

    • Formula:

    SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

    Step 7: Estimate SOM

    Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

    Conservative Approach (Recommended):

  • Year 3: 2-3% of SAM

  • Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

    • Consider:

  • Competitive intensity

  • Available resources (funding, team)

  • Go-to-market effectiveness

  • Differentiation strength

    • Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

    Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

    Section 1: Executive Summary

  • Market opportunity in one paragraph

  • TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

    • Section 2: Market Definition

  • Problem being solved

  • Target customer profile

  • Geographic scope

  • Time horizon

    • Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Customer segment breakdown

  • Segment sizing with sources

  • TAM calculation with formula

  • Assumptions documented

    • Section 4: Top-Down Validation

  • Industry category and size

  • Filter application

  • Validated TAM

  • Comparison to bottom-up

    • Section 5: SAM Calculation

  • Filters applied with rationale

  • SAM formula and result

  • Segment-level breakdown

    • Section 6: SOM Projection

  • Market share assumptions

  • Year 3 and Year 5 estimates

  • Customer count implications

  • Revenue projections

    • Section 7: Market Growth

  • Industry growth rate (CAGR)

  • Key growth drivers

  • 5-year market evolution

    • Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

  • Public company comparisons

  • Customer count validation

  • Competitive context

    • Section 9: Investment Thesis

  • Market opportunity assessment

  • Key positives and risks

  • Venture-scale potential

  • Next steps

    • Step 9: Save Report

    Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

  • Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md

  • Use Write tool to create file

  • Confirm file location with user

    • Tips for Best Results

    Do:

  • Start with bottom-up (most credible)

  • Always triangulate with top-down

  • Cite all data sources

  • Document every assumption

  • Be conservative on SOM

  • Compare to public company benchmarks

  • Explain any data gaps or limitations

    • Don't:

  • Rely solely on top-down

  • Cherry-pick optimistic data

  • Claim >10% SOM without strong justification

  • Mix methodologies inappropriately

  • Ignore competitive context

  • Skip validation steps

    • Example Usage

    User: /market-opportunity
    Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.
    What product or service are you analyzing?
    → "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"
    Who are your target customers?
    → "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"
    What's your pricing model?
    → "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"
    [Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

    Integration with Other Commands

    This command pairs well with:

  • /financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model

  • /business-case - Include market sizing in business case

    • Notes

  • Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis

  • Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations

  • Update annually as market evolves

  • Conservative estimates build credibility with investors

      • startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity - Agent Skills