identify-assumptions-new

Identify Assumptions (New Product) - New Product Assumption Identification and Risk Assessment

Skill Overview

Systematically identify key assumptions for new products across eight major risk categories, helping entrepreneurs and product teams discover potential failure factors at an early stage.

Applicable Scenarios

1. Startup Project Risk Assessment

When launching a new startup project, use this skill to comprehensively assess the product concept’s market viability, technical feasibility, team capabilities, and other key dimensions, avoiding investment of resources in the wrong direction.

2. New Product Concept Validation

When your team is preparing to develop a new product or major feature, use the eight-category risk framework—value, usability, feasibility, viability, ethics, go-to-market, strategy, and team—to identify the core assumptions that need validation and develop a testing plan.

3. Product Approval Decision Support

During product approval reviews, use this skill to analyze potential risks from the perspectives of product managers, designers, and engineers, providing a systematic risk checklist and validation recommendations to support decision-making.

Core Functions

1. Assumption Identification Across Eight Major Risk Categories

Based on Teresa Torres’s four core product risks—value, usability, feasibility, and viability—this framework expands to eight risk categories suited to new products. These include ethical considerations, go-to-market, strategy and objectives, and team capabilities. It generates specific assumptions for each category, helping teams think comprehensively about “what could go wrong.”

2. Three-Perspective Failure Analysis

Analyze potential reasons a product might fail from three professional perspectives:

Product manager: market demand, willingness to pay, and the competitive landscape

Designer: first-time user experience, user onboarding, and engagement

Engineer: whether to build or buy, scalability, and technical debt

This ensures that critical risk areas are not overlooked.

3. Assumption Confidence Ratings and Testing Recommendations

Assess each identified assumption’s confidence level—high, medium, or low—and provide corresponding testing method recommendations. This helps teams prioritize high-risk, low-confidence assumptions and validate critical assumptions at minimal cost.

Frequently Asked Questions

What product stage is this skill suitable for?

It is primarily intended for the product concept and early development stages, before you have invested substantial resources. It can help you clarify which assumptions need validation before writing code or spending heavily. It can also be used during product iteration to assess the risks of new features.

How do the eight risk categories differ from the traditional four?

Teresa Torres’s four core risks—value, usability, feasibility, and viability—primarily focus on the product itself. For new products and startup projects, we expand the framework to include four additional dimensions:

Ethics: Should we do this?

Go-to-market: Can we reach our users?

Strategy and objectives: Is our strategy repeatable, and what is the external environment?

Team: Do we have the right people?

Together, these dimensions cover a broader range of risk scenarios.

How should I use the output from this skill?

This skill generates a structured list of assumptions, including confidence ratings and testing recommendations for each assumption. You can:

Prioritize high-risk, low-confidence assumptions in the product backlog

Use the testing recommendations to design an MVP or validation experiment

Use the list as a starting point for risk discussions in product reviews and approval meetings

Review the assumption list regularly and update confidence levels

Will this skill replace a product manager’s judgment?

No. This skill is a tool for supporting thought and analysis. It helps you systematically identify the risk dimensions that need to be considered, but the final judgment, prioritization, and decision on whether to adopt a particular testing recommendation must still be made by you and your team based on the actual situation. Good product judgment still requires human insight.

What information do I need to provide to get good results?

It is recommended that you provide:

Product concept description: What is your product, and what problem does it solve?

Target users: Who will use the product?

Core functions or features: What can the product do?

Current understanding or concerns: What are you already worried about?

If you have a business plan, market research documents, or other materials, you can provide them as well. The skill will take these materials into account.

Is this skill suitable for people without a product background?

Yes. The skill is designed to help you think systematically, rather than requiring you to be a product expert. Whether you are an entrepreneur, engineer, designer, or student, you can use it to organize the risks associated with a new product idea. The resulting checklist explains each risk category in plain language and provides specific testing recommendations.