Estimate Analysis — Analyst Expectations and EPS Revision Trend Analysis Skill

Skill Overview

Estimate Analysis is a stock expectations analysis skill based on Yahoo Finance (yfinance) data. It helps you take an in-depth look at analyst consensus estimates for EPS and revenue for any stock, revision direction and momentum, growth expectation comparisons, and the historical accuracy of estimates.

Use Cases

1. Pre-earnings expectation tracking: View the current-quarter and next-quarter EPS consensus estimates for a stock, along with upward or downward revisions over the past 7/30/60/90 days, to determine whether market expectations are rising or falling.
2. Cross-sectional comparison of growth expectations: Compare a company’s expected growth rate with those of its industry, sector, and the S&P 500 benchmark. You can also review the distribution of high and low estimates to determine whether the company is expected to outperform its peers.
3. Expectation credibility calibration: Review the “actual results vs. analyst estimates” records for the past four quarters, calculate the frequency and average magnitude of earnings beats, and determine whether current expectations are relatively conservative or optimistic.

Core Features

1. Revision trend and breadth analysis: Track changes in EPS estimates for each period over 7/30/60/90 days, count the number of analysts raising or lowering their estimates, and calculate the revision ratio (number of upward revisions ÷ total number of revisions). A ratio above 0.7 indicates broad upward revisions, while a ratio below 0.3 indicates broad downward revisions, helping identify expectation-revision momentum.
2. Consensus estimate overview: Summarize EPS and revenue consensus values for the current quarter, next quarter, current year, and next year, along with the highest and lowest estimates, range width, number of covering analysts, and year-over-year growth rates. The system automatically flags uncertainty risks when the estimate range is too wide (over 15%) or coverage is too limited (fewer than 5 analysts).
3. Growth expectations and historical accuracy: Report comparisons between the company’s expected growth and those of its industry, sector, and the S&P 500, as well as actual results, percentage differences from estimates, earnings beat rates, and average beat magnitudes for the past four quarters, in order to assess the historical reliability of these analyst expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the data source for this skill? Does it support A-shares?

The data comes from Yahoo Finance, accessed through the open-source yfinance library. It primarily covers markets supported by Yahoo Finance, with a focus on U.S. stocks, and is not suitable for A-share analysis. The data is provided for research and educational purposes only and may lag real-time consensus data providers by several hours to several days.

What does an upward revision to EPS estimates mean?

Persistent upward revisions typically indicate that analysts are raising their expectations ahead of an earnings report, creating positive revision momentum. However, this does not mean the stock price will necessarily rise—the company must actually exceed the elevated expectations for them to be validated. Conversely, persistent downward revisions are often a warning sign worth noting. Expectations reflect consensus views, not definitive conclusions.

Is this skill paid? Does it constitute investment advice?

The skill itself is free, and its data comes from Yahoo Finance’s public API. It is important to note that this is not investment advice. The output consists of publicly available analyst consensus data and trend analysis, does not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell, and does not predict stock prices. The reliability of long-term annual estimates is inherently lower, so they should be interpreted alongside other information and evaluated independently.