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startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM calculations

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name:startup-business-analyst-market-opportunitydescription:Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOMallowed-tools:Read Write Edit Glob Grep Bash WebSearch WebFetch

Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

  • Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows

  • Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

    • Do not use this skill when

  • The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis

  • You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

    • Instructions

  • Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.

  • Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.

  • Provide actionable steps and verification.

  • If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

    • What This Command Does

    This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

  • Define the target market and customer segments

  • Gather relevant market data

  • Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology

  • Validate with top-down analysis

  • Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters

  • Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)

  • Present findings in a formatted report

    • Instructions for Claude

    When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

    Step 1: Gather Context

    Ask the user for essential information:

  • Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?

  • Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)

  • Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)

  • Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)

  • Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

    • Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

    The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

  • Bottom-up calculation frameworks

  • Top-down validation approaches

  • Industry-specific templates

  • Data source recommendations

    • Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

    For B2B/SaaS:

  • Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)

  • Estimate number of companies in each segment

  • Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment

  • Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

    • For Consumer/Marketplace:

  • Define target user demographics

  • Estimate total addressable users

  • Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)

  • Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

    • For Transactions/E-commerce:

  • Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)

  • Determine take rate or margin

  • Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

    • Step 4: Gather Market Data

    Use available tools to research:

  • WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data

  • Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates

  • Document assumptions clearly

    • Recommended data sources (from skill):

  • Government data (Census, BLS)

  • Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)

  • Public company filings (10-K reports)

  • Trade associations

  • Academic research

    • Step 5: Top-Down Validation

    Validate bottom-up calculation:

  • Find total market category size from research

  • Apply geographic filters

  • Apply segment/product filters

  • Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

    • If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

    Step 6: Calculate SAM

    Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

  • Geographic: Regions actually serviceable

  • Product Capability: Features needed to serve

  • Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt

  • Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

    • Formula:

    SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

    Step 7: Estimate SOM

    Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

    Conservative Approach (Recommended):

  • Year 3: 2-3% of SAM

  • Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

    • Consider:

  • Competitive intensity

  • Available resources (funding, team)

  • Go-to-market effectiveness

  • Differentiation strength

    • Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

    Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

    Section 1: Executive Summary

  • Market opportunity in one paragraph

  • TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

    • Section 2: Market Definition

  • Problem being solved

  • Target customer profile

  • Geographic scope

  • Time horizon

    • Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Customer segment breakdown

  • Segment sizing with sources

  • TAM calculation with formula

  • Assumptions documented

    • Section 4: Top-Down Validation

  • Industry category and size

  • Filter application

  • Validated TAM

  • Comparison to bottom-up

    • Section 5: SAM Calculation

  • Filters applied with rationale

  • SAM formula and result

  • Segment-level breakdown

    • Section 6: SOM Projection

  • Market share assumptions

  • Year 3 and Year 5 estimates

  • Customer count implications

  • Revenue projections

    • Section 7: Market Growth

  • Industry growth rate (CAGR)

  • Key growth drivers

  • 5-year market evolution

    • Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

  • Public company comparisons

  • Customer count validation

  • Competitive context

    • Section 9: Investment Thesis

  • Market opportunity assessment

  • Key positives and risks

  • Venture-scale potential

  • Next steps

    • Step 9: Save Report

    Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

  • Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md

  • Use Write tool to create file

  • Confirm file location with user

    • Tips for Best Results

    Do:

  • Start with bottom-up (most credible)

  • Always triangulate with top-down

  • Cite all data sources

  • Document every assumption

  • Be conservative on SOM

  • Compare to public company benchmarks

  • Explain any data gaps or limitations

    • Don't:

  • Rely solely on top-down

  • Cherry-pick optimistic data

  • Claim >10% SOM without strong justification

  • Mix methodologies inappropriately

  • Ignore competitive context

  • Skip validation steps

    • Example Usage

    User: /market-opportunity
    Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.
    What product or service are you analyzing?
    → "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"
    Who are your target customers?
    → "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"
    What's your pricing model?
    → "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"
    [Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

    Integration with Other Commands

    This command pairs well with:

  • /financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model

  • /business-case - Include market sizing in business case

    • Notes

  • Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis

  • Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations

  • Update annually as market evolves

  • Conservative estimates build credibility with investors

      • startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity - Agent Skills